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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

A multi-country time-series study
Authors: Bo Wen; Yao Wu; Yuming Guo; Antonio Gasparrini; Shilu Tong; Ala Overcenco; Aleš Urban; +61 Authors

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study

Abstract

Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects.We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates.Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type.Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Countries
Sweden, Italy, United Kingdom, Portugal, Germany, Greece, Italy, Switzerland, Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, Ireland, Czech Republic
Keywords

330, Respiratory Tract Diseases, 610 Medicine & health, intra-day, Inter-day; Intra-day; Mortality; Temperature variability, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, Article, 360 Social problems & social services, Inter-day ; Intra-day ; Mortality ; Temperature Variability, inter-dayI, Humans, temperature variability, GE1-350, Mortality, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Inter-day, Temperature variability, Intra-day, Temperature, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa och socialmedicin, Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine, mortality, Environmental sciences, Cardiovascular Diseases, Seasons

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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