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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Advances in Applied ...arrow_drop_down
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Advances in Applied Probability
Article . 1994 . Peer-reviewed
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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Strong Convergence of Stochastic Epidemics

Strong convergence of stochastic epidemics
Authors: Ball, Frank; O'Neill, Philip;

Strong Convergence of Stochastic Epidemics

Abstract

This paper is concerned with a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population in which new infections occur at ratef(x,y) and removals occur at rateg(x,y), wherexand y are the numbers of susceptible and infective individuals, respectively, andfandgare arbitrary but specified positive real-valued functions. Sequences of such epidemics, indexed by the initial number of susceptiblesn,are considered and conditions are derived under which the epidemic processes converge almost surely to a birth and death process asntends to infinity. Thus a threshold theorem for such an epidemic model is obtained. The results are extended to models which incorporate immigration and emigration of susceptibles. The theory is illustrated by several examples of models taken from the epidemic literature. Generalizations to multipopulation epidemics are discussed briefly.

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Keywords

Strong limit theorems, Epidemiology, threshold theorem, Markov models, closed, homogeneously mixing population, Applications of branching processes, Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.), epidemic spread, birth an death process, emigration, almost sure convergence, Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces, immigration

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Average
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