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We investigate capital requirements based on Value at Risk (V@R) and Average Value at Risk (AV@R) when the bank's econometric model only approximately describes the true, unknown return generating process, as is often the case in practice. We provide a simple formula for such capital requirements that uses a first order Taylor expansion of V@R and AV@R around a model confidence parameter. This formula allows the bank to reflect the confidence of the econometric model into capital requirements in a theoretically consistent manner. We derive feasible upper bounds on the first order approximation of the true, unknown V@R and AV@R. An empirical application to daily S&P 500 returns shows that the upper bounds are tight and provide valuable information for assessing capital requirements in the presence of model risk.
10003 Department of Finance, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, 330 Economics
10003 Department of Finance, 2002 Economics and Econometrics, 330 Economics
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