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Modelling agricultural risk in a large scale positive mathematical programming model

Authors: Arribas, Iván; Louhichi, Kamel; Perni, Angel; Vila, José; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio;

Modelling agricultural risk in a large scale positive mathematical programming model

Abstract

Mathematical programming has been extensively used to account for risk in farmers' decision making. The recent development of the positive mathematical programming (PMP) has renewed the need to incorporate risk in a more robust and flexible way. Most of the existing PMP-risk models have been tested at farm-type level and for a very limited sample of farms. This paper presents and tests a novel methodology for modelling risk at individual farm level in a large scale model, called individual farm model for common agricultural policy analysis (IFM-CAP). Results show a clear trade-off between including and excluding the risk specification. Albeit both alternatives provide very close estimates, simulation results shows that the explicit inclusion of risk in the model allows isolating risk effects on farmer behaviour. However, this specification increases three times the computation time required for estimation.

Country
France
Keywords

risque et incertitude, programmation mathématique positive, expected utility, highest posterior density, modèle de ferme, PMP, politique agricole commune, agricultura, risk and uncertainty, anàlisi matemàtica, European common agricultural policy, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, psicologia, positive mathematical programming, agriculture

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
bronze