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Analysis of Non‐Stationary Modulated Time Series with Applications to Oceanographic Surface Flow Measurements

Analysis of non-stationary modulated time series with applications to oceanographic surface flow measurements
Authors: Arthur P. Guillaumin; Adam M. Sykulski; Sofia C. Olhede; Jeffrey J. Early; Jonathan M. Lilly;

Analysis of Non‐Stationary Modulated Time Series with Applications to Oceanographic Surface Flow Measurements

Abstract

We propose a new class of univariate non‐stationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing data. We extend our techniques to a class of bivariate time series that are isotropic. Exact inference is often not computationally viable for time series analysis, and so we propose an estimation method based on the Whittle likelihood, a commonly adopted pseudo‐likelihood. Our inference procedure is shown to be consistent under standard assumptions, as well as having considerably lower computational cost than exact likelihood in general. We show the utility of this framework for the analysis of drifting instruments, an analysis that is key to characterizing global ocean circulation and therefore also for decadal to century‐scale climate understanding.

Keywords

Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications, 330, SPECTRAL DENSITY-ESTIMATION, Statistics & Probability, MODELS, physics.ao-ph, 310, PARAMETERS, missing data, 1403 Econometrics, surface drifters, Interdisciplinary Applications, Inference from stochastic processes and spectral analysis, Econometrics, stat.AP, Modulation, Whittle likelihood, Science & Technology, 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics, non-stationary, 0104 Statistics, non‐stationary, periodogram, modulation, physics.flu-dyn, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), stat.ME, Physical Sciences, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, Mathematics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze