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A systematic review describes models for recruitment prediction at the design stage of a clinical trial

Authors: Susanna Dodd; Carrol Gamble; Efstathia Gkioni; Efstathia Gkioni; Efstathia Gkioni; Roser Rius;

A systematic review describes models for recruitment prediction at the design stage of a clinical trial

Abstract

Abstract Objective: Patient recruitment in clinical trials is challenging with failure to recruit to time and target sample size common. This may be caused by unanticipated problems or by overestimation of the recruitment rate. This study is a systematic review of statistical models to predict recruitment at the design stage of clinical trials. Study Design and Setting: The Online Resource for Recruitment research in Clinical triAls database was searched to identify articles published between 2008 and 2016. Articles published before 2008 were identified from a relevant systematic review. Google search was used to find potential methods in gray literature. Results: Thirteen eligible articles were identified of which, 11 focused on stochastic approaches, one on deterministic models, and one included both stochastic and deterministic methods. Models varied considerably in the factors included and in their complexity. Key aspects included their ability to condition on time; whether they used average or center-specific recruitment rates; and assumptions around center initiation rates. Lack of flexibility of some models restricts their implementation. Conclusion: Deterministic models require specification of few parameters but are likely unrealistic although easy to implement. Increasingly, stochastic models require greater parameter specification, which, along with greater complexity may be a barrier to their implementation.

Keywords

Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada::Estadística biosanitària, Biomatemàtica, Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62D05 Sampling theory, sample surveys, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], :Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Classificació AMS::92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general, Recruitment prediction, :62 Statistics::62D05 Sampling theory, sample surveys [Classificació AMS], sample surveys, Clinical trials, Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62D05 Sampling theory, Humans, Sampling (Statistics), Biomathematics, Publishing, Clinical Trials as Topic, Models, Statistical, :Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística aplicada::Estadística biosanitària [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Clinical trials; Recruitment prediction; Statistical models; Design stage, Patient Selection, :92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general [Classificació AMS], Statistical models, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències, Research Design, Sample Size, Design stage, Mostreig (Estadística)

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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