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The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Authors: Moersdorf, Jessica; Rivers, Morgan; Denkenberger, David; Breuer, Lutz; Jehn, Florian Ulrich;

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Abstract

AbstractModern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

Country
New Zealand
Keywords

37 - Earth sciences::3709 - Physical geography and environmental geoscience::370903 - Natural hazards, Technology, rural management and agribusiness, 330, Electrical Grid, solar storm, Global Catastrophic Risk, 40 - Engineering::4008 - Electrical engineering::400805 - Electrical energy transmission, 30 - Agricultural, global catastrophic risks, land and farm management::300205 - Agricultural production systems simulation, 40 - Engineering::4010 - Engineering practice and education::401005 - Risk engineering, electrical grid, GE1-350, HEMP, land and farm management::300207 - Agricultural systems analysis and modelling, Research Articles, veterinary and food sciences::3006 - Food sciences::300606 - Food sustainability, land and farm management::300208 - Farm management, T, Agriculture, food security, Solar Storm, Environmental sciences, Food Security, veterinary and food sciences::3002 - Agriculture, networks and systems, global catastrophic infrastructure loss, Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss, 40 - Engineering::4005 - Civil engineering::400508 - Infrastructure engineering and asset management

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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