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Evaluating Short-Term Forecasting of Multiple Time Series in IoT Environments

Authors: Tzagkarakis, Christos; Charalampidis, Pavlos; Roubakis, Stylianos; Fragkiadakis, Alexandros; Ioannidis, Sotiris;

Evaluating Short-Term Forecasting of Multiple Time Series in IoT Environments

Abstract

Modern Internet of Things (IoT) environments are monitored via a large number of IoT enabled sensing devices, with the data acquisition and processing infrastructure setting restrictions in terms of computational power and energy re- sources. To alleviate this issue, sensors are often configured to operate at relatively low sampling frequencies, yielding a reduced set of observations. Nevertheless, this can hamper dramatically subsequent decision-making, such as forecasting. To address this problem, in this work we evaluate short-term forecasting in highly underdetermined cases, i.e., the number of sensor streams is much higher than the number of observations. Several statistical, machine learning and neural network-based models are thoroughly examined with respect to the resulting forecasting accuracy on five different real-world datasets. The focus is given on a unified experimental protocol especially designed for short-term prediction of multiple time series at the IoT edge. The proposed framework can be considered as an important step towards establishing a solid forecasting strategy in resource constrained IoT applications.

This work has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 957337 (project MARVEL) and the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, under the call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE (project code: T1EDK-00070).

Keywords

Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, rolling window tuning, Internet of Things, neural networks, Machine Learning (cs.LG), machine learning, short-term forecasting, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, multiple time series, Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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