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Data Driven Predictive Models Based on Artificial Intelligence to Anticipate the Presence of Plasmopara Viticola and Uncinula Necator in Southern European Winegrowing Regions

Authors: Marta OTERO; Luisa Fernanda VELASQUEZ; Boris BASILE; Jordi Ricard ONRUBIA; Alex Josep PUJOL; Josep PIJUAN;

Data Driven Predictive Models Based on Artificial Intelligence to Anticipate the Presence of Plasmopara Viticola and Uncinula Necator in Southern European Winegrowing Regions

Abstract

Downy and powdery mildews are two of the main diseases threatening grapevine cultivation worldwide caused by the phytopathogens Plasmopara viticola and Uncinula necator, respectively. These diseases may cause severe damage to grapevines by inducing wilting of plant organs, including bunches, especially when vines are untreated. This fact, together with the widespread of these pathogens due to the large extensions of land dedicated to grapevine monoculture, makes necessary to develop new predictive modeling tools that allow anticipating disease appearance in the vineyard, minimizing the losses in fruit yield and quality, and helping farmers in defining appropriate and more sustainable disease management strategies (fungicides applied at the right time and dose). For this purpose, farms located in three countries (Portugal, Spain, and Italy) were selected to study the relationship between the microclimatic characteristics of the plots, the phenological stage of the plants throughout the annual cycle, and the presence of both pathogens using different Machine and Deep Learning classification algorithms: Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines, and Deep Neural Networks. The results showed that, after an entire annual grapevine cycle, the best performing models were Support Vector Machines for downy mildew and Random Forest for powdery mildew, providing a prediction accuracy of more than 90% for the infection risk and more than 80% for the treatment recommendation. These models will be fine-tuned during two additional vegetative seasons to ensure their robustness and will receive short- and medium-term climatological and phenological forecasts to make recommendations. The preliminary results obtained show that these models are a promising tool in the field of plant disease prevention and resource saving.

Keywords

resource saving, fungicide management, Machine learning, disease anticipation, prevent economic losses

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid