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Expert Delphi Survey as a Cloud-Based Decision Support Service

Authors: Andrzej M.J. Skulimowski;

Expert Delphi Survey as a Cloud-Based Decision Support Service

Abstract

The essence of the online Delphi method is multiple round interviews of an expert group who answer questions in a structured e-survey and verify hypotheses called Delphi statements or questions. These can be defined by the client contracting the study or the core experts employed by the Delphi supplier, usually a consulting or research institution. The questions can have various forms: binary ("yes/no"), qualitative - Likert-scale-valued, or quantitative. A flexible survey system should offer a variety of question and/or statement types, as well as a user-friendly interface to reply or verify them. Additionally, the replies should be analyzed by strict statistical and uncertainty handling methods to yield consistent recommendations to the survey stakeholders. The ‘decision Delphi’ is a survey variant that corresponds most strictly to the needs of organizations that look for expert knowledge concerning specific technological, market or other business problems. This type of survey also fits the needs of medical research on future therapy, epidemics, health care issues, etc. Its characteristic feature is the participation of the client’s staff or the decision makers themselves. The cloud-based application ForgnosisTM is a modern implementation of a decision Delphi endowed with sophisticated analytic features. We will present its capabilities based on a recent survey and analysis case carried out for the EU Horizon 2020 flagship project MOVING. This system is offered in SaaS mode, with some PaaS functionalities. The latter include a variety of programming tools for designing the organization’s customized survey.

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Keywords

online Delphi survey; corporate foresight; multi-round Delphi; statistical analysis; group decision support; strategic decision making; technological scenarios

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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