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Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Authors: Im, Ulas; Samset, Bjørn H.; Nenes, Athanasios; Thomas, Jennie; Kokkola, Harri; Dubovik, Oleg; Amiridis, Vassilis; +34 Authors

Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions: Overcoming a Barrier to Projecting Near‐Term Climate Evolution and Risk

Abstract

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI) are a major source of uncertainty in climate science, critically affecting our ability to project near‐term climate evolution and assess societal risks. These interactions influence effective radiative forcing, cloud dynamics, and precipitation patterns, yet remain insufficiently constrained due to limitations in observations, modeling, and process understanding. This uncertainty hampers robust policy advice across multiple domains—from estimating remaining carbon budgets and climate sensitivity, to anticipating regional extreme events and evaluating climate interventions such as solar radiation modification. In many cases, the influence of ACI is either underappreciated or excluded from decision‐making frameworks due to its complexity and lack of quantification. This perspective outlines a path forward to overcome these barriers by leveraging emerging opportunities in satellite remote sensing, ground‐based and airborne observations, high‐resolution climate modeling, and machine learning. We identify key areas where rapid progress is feasible, including improved retrievals of cloud microphysical properties, better representation of natural aerosols in a warming world, and enhanced integration of observational and modeling communities. Even as anthropogenic aerosol and its impacts on clouds is reducing owing to emissions controls, addressing ACI uncertainties remains essential for refining climate projections, supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, and delivering actionable science to policymakers in a rapidly changing climate system.

Countries
Austria, France, Germany, United Kingdom
Keywords

extreme events, Lidar, radiative forcing, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, climate change impacts, roadmap, Aerosol-cloud interactions

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold