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AbstractWe examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
model evaluation, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 551, ddc:551.41, sea ice, Climate Science, Arctic, Geophysics, climate models, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, CMIP6, Klimatvetenskap
model evaluation, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 551, ddc:551.41, sea ice, Climate Science, Arctic, Geophysics, climate models, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, CMIP6, Klimatvetenskap
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