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Prying Open the Black Box of Causality - A Causal Mediation Analysis Test of Procedural Justice Policing

Authors: Krisztián Pósch;

Prying Open the Black Box of Causality - A Causal Mediation Analysis Test of Procedural Justice Policing

Abstract

Objectives: Review causal mediation analysis as a method for estimating and assessing direct and indirect effects in experimental criminology. Test procedural justice theory by examining the extent to which procedural justice mediates the impact of contact with the police on various outcomes. Apply causal mediation analysis to better interpret data from a field experiment that had suffered from a particular type of implementation failure.Methods: Data from a block-randomised controlled trial of procedural justice policing (the Scottish Community Engagement Trial) were analysed. All constructs were measured using surveys distributed during roadside police checks. The treatment implementation was assessed by analysing the treatment effect consistency and heterogeneity. Causal mediation analysis and sensitivity analysis were used to assess the mediating role of procedural justice.Results: First, the treatment effect was consistent and fairly homogeneous, indicating that the systematic variation in the study is attributable to the design. Second, procedural justice acts as a mediator channelling the treatment’s effect towards normative alignment (NIE=-0.207), duty to obey (NIE=-0.153), sense of power (NIE=-0.078), and social identity (NIE=-0.052), all of which are moderately robust to unmeasured confounding. The NIEs for risk of sanction and personal morality were highly sensitive, while for coerced obligation and sense of power they were non-significant. Conclusions: Causal mediation analysis is a versatile tool that can salvage experiments with systematic yet ambiguous treatment effects by allowing researchers to “pry open” the black box of causality. Most of the theoretical propositions of procedural justice policing were supported. Future studies are needed with more discernible causal mediation effects.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Police legitimacy, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Causal mediation analysis, FOS: Sociology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology, Crime, Law, and Deviance, potential outcome framework, procedural justice policing, sensitivity analysis, Sociology, Procedural justice policing, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Criminology, bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences, causal mediation analysis, Potential outcome framework, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences, SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology|Crime, Law, and Deviance, police legitimacy, Sensitivity analysis, Causal inference

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid