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Journal of Econometrics
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2017
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
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New Goodness-of-Fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models

Authors: Igor Kheifets; Carlos Velasco;

New Goodness-of-Fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models

Abstract

This paper proposes new specification tests for conditional models with discrete responses, which are key to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, to obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and to get appropriate predictions of the probability of future events. In particular, we test the static and dynamic ordered choice model specifications and can cover infinite support distributions for e.g. count data. The traditional approach for specification testing of discrete response models is based on probability integral transforms of a jittered discrete data which leads to continuous uniform iid series under the true conditional distribution. Then, standard specification testing techniques for continuous variables could be applied to the transformed series, but the extra randomness from jitters affects the power properties of these methods. We investigate in this paper an alternative transformation based only on original discrete data that avoids any randomization. We analyze the asymptotic properties of goodness-of-fit tests based on this new transformation and explore the properties in finite samples of a bootstrap algorithm to approximate the critical values of test statistics which are model and parameter dependent. We show analytically and in simulations that our approach dominates the methods based on randomization in terms of power. We apply the new tests to models of the monetary policy conducted by the Federal Reserve.

Keywords

Specification tests, Count data, Dynamic discrete choice models, Conditional probability integral transform, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Economía, Specification tests, Dynamic discrete choice models, C52, FOS: Mathematics, Conditional probability integral transform, C22, Count data, C12, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C12, jel: jel:C22

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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