Abstract Pachycereus pecten-aboriginum is a columnar cactus currently threatened by the conversion of natural vegetation to buffelgrass pasture ( Pennisetum ciliare ) in Sonora, Mexico. However, knowledge about its population dynamics is extremely poor, particularly in response to disturbance caused by pasture conversion. We set up experiments to evaluate seed removal, germination, seedling survival and compared demographic patterns on permanent plots from natural vegetation and pasture. Our experiments on regeneration show that seedlings were unable to establish in pasture because of high levels of mortality due to soil drying and cattle trampling. The population growth rate ( λ ) was 1.060 and 1.086 for the 2006–2007 and 2007–2008 periods, respectively, in the native thornscrub vegetation. The slight increase in λ in 2007–2008 was a result of increased fecundity and seedling survival. The highest elasticity values correspond to the survival of large/old individuals. Using the average of both matrices, we obtained a mean matrix to perform numerical analyses simulating demographic variation to project the population behavior under buffelgrass pasture conditions. The numerical simulations suggest a decreasing population only when adult survival probabilities were affected. Given these limitations for population growth, our data suggest that adult populations that persist on pastures will be driven into local extinction.