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Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

Authors: Rogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher; Séférian, Roland;

Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

Abstract

Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been reported, reducing the effectiveness of the remaining carbon budget as a means of setting emission reduction targets that are consistent with the Paris Agreement. Here we present a framework that enables us to track estimates of the remaining carbon budget and to understand how these estimates can improve over time as scientific knowledge advances. We propose that application of this framework may help to reconcile differences between estimates of the remaining carbon budget and may provide a basis for reducing uncertainty in the range of future estimates.

Countries
Austria, Switzerland, Germany, United Kingdom, Belgium, France
Keywords

Paris, Time Factors, 550, 330, General Science & Technology, Earth, Planet, International Cooperation, CONSISTENT, Global Warming, UNCERTAINTIES, Feedback, Theoretical, Models, Human Activities, Earth (Planet), PROPORTIONALITY, Science & Technology, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmosphere, Temperature, Uncertainty, PATHWAYS, Reproducibility of Results, Earth, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS, Environmental Policy, Multidisciplinary Sciences, 1.5 DEGREES-C, FEEDBACKS, Science & Technology - Other Topics, Planet, SIMPLER MODEL, Goals, CYCLE MODELS

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    310
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
310
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
Green
bronze