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Stochastic competitive exclusion leads to a cascade of species extinctions

Authors: Capitán Gómez, José Ángel; Cuenda, Sara; Alonso, David;

Stochastic competitive exclusion leads to a cascade of species extinctions

Abstract

Abstract Community ecology has traditionally relied on the competitive exclusion principle, a piece of common wisdom in conceptual frameworks developed to describe species assemblages. Key concepts in community ecology, such as limiting similarity and niche partitioning, are based on competitive exclusion. However, this classical paradigm in ecology relies on implications derived from simple, deterministic models. Here we show how the predictions of a symmetric, deterministic model about the way extinctions proceed can be utterly different from the results derived from the same model when ecological drift (demographic stochasticity) is explicitly considered. Using analytical approximations to the steady-state conditional probabilities for assemblages with two and three species, we demonstrate that stochastic competitive exclusion leads to a cascade of extinctions, whereas the symmetric, deterministic model predicts a multiple collapse of species. To test the robustness of our results, we have studied the effect of environmental stochasticity and relaxed the species symmetry assumption. Our conclusions highlight the crucial role of stochasticity when deriving reliable theoretical predictions for species community assembly.

Country
Spain
Keywords

Matemáticas, Biología, Population Dynamics, Ecological and Environmental Phenomena, Extinction, Biological, Problems related to evolution, Competitive exclusión, competitive exclusion, Competitive exclusion, Continuous-time Markov processes, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Ecological drift, Ecosystem, Stochastic Processes, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), Física, Models, Theoretical, Population dynamics (general), continuous-time Markov processes, FOS: Biological sciences, Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces, ecological drift, Algorithms

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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