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Revue économique
Article
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Revue économique
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l’erreur de conjonction

Authors: Duchêne, Sébastien; Boyer-Kassem, Thomas; Guerci, Eric;

Une nouvelle approche expérimentale pour tester les modèles quantiques de l’erreur de conjonction

Abstract

La théorie classique des probabilités requiert que la probabilité de la conjonction de deux événements soit inférieure à la probabilité d’un des événements seul. Or les sujets ne jugent empiriquement pas toujours ainsi : c’est la traditionnelle erreur de conjonction. L’une des explications actuellement prometteuses de ce paradoxe repose sur des modèles dits quantiques, développés à partir des outils mathématiques de la mécanique quantique. Mais ces modèles sont-ils empiriquement adéquats ? Quelles versions de ces modèles peuvent être employées ? En particulier, les versions les plus simples, dites non dégénérées, peuvent-elles être suffisantes ? Nous proposons ici un protocole expérimental original pour tester en laboratoire les modèles quantiques de l’erreur de conjonction. Les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les modèles non dégénérés ne sont pas empiriquement adéquats, et que la recherche future concernant les modèles quantiques devrait s’orienter vers les modèles dégénérés.

Keywords

Conjunction Fallacy, Decision theory, Quantum probability, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, jel: jel:C40, jel: jel:C10, jel: jel:C44, jel: jel:D03

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze