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A Markov Chain Model for Contagion

Authors: Dassios, Angelos; Zhao, Hongbiao;

A Markov Chain Model for Contagion

Abstract

We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011).

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Keywords

risk model; contagion risk; bivariate point process; Markov chain model;discretised dynamic contagion process; dynamic contagion process, ddc:330, discretised dynamic contagion process, bivariate point process, Insurance, risk model, Markov chain model, HG8011-9999, risk model; contagion risk; bivariate point process; Markov chain model; discretised dynamic contagion process; dynamic contagion process, dynamic contagion process, contagion risk, jel: jel:C, jel: jel:M2, jel: jel:M4, jel: jel:K2, jel: jel:G0, jel: jel:G1, jel: jel:G2, jel: jel:G3, jel: jel:F3

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold