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Variance Decomposition for Statistical Quantities of Interest

Authors: John M. McFarland;

Variance Decomposition for Statistical Quantities of Interest

Abstract

Modeling and simulation activities used in engineering analysis and design are subject to a variety of different uncertainties. These include inherent variations in model input variables (aleatory uncertainties) as well as imprecise or limited information about model parameters (epistemic uncertainties). The difference is that the epistemic uncertainties have the potential to be reduced over time through collection of new data or model refinement. This paper proposes a variance decomposition approach for sensitivity analysis of models with inputs that are subject to both types of uncertainty. The approach is based on analysis of the contributions of epistemic uncertainty in model input variables or probability distribution parameters to the uncertainty in a statistical quantify of interest, such as a failure probability. It is shown that alternative approaches, such as those that do not distinguish between the different uncertainty types, can fail to identify the most important sources of reducible uncert...

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Top 10%
Average
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