
doi: 10.2139/ssrn.968229
Using the restrictions implied by the heteroskedasticity of stock returns, we identify four factors in the U.S. industry returns. The first correlates highly with the market portfolio; the second is a portfolio of stocks that produce investment goods minus stocks that produce consumption goods; the third differentiates between cyclical and noncyclical stocks. The fourth, a portfolio of industries that produce input goods minus the rest of the market, is a robust predictor of excess returns on the market portfolio and bond returns. The extracted factors are shown to contain significant information about future macroeconomic and financial variables.
factor analysis; identification; heteroscedasticity, jel: jel:G3, jel: jel:F3
factor analysis; identification; heteroscedasticity, jel: jel:G3, jel: jel:F3
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