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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Annals of Actuarial ...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Annals of Actuarial Science
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: Cambridge Core User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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A Neural Network Extension of the Lee-Carter Model to Multiple Populations

Authors: Ronald Richman; Mario V. Wüthrich;

A Neural Network Extension of the Lee-Carter Model to Multiple Populations

Abstract

AbstractThe Lee–Carter (LC) model is a basic approach to forecasting mortality rates of a single population. Although extensions of the LC model to forecasting rates for multiple populations have recently been proposed, the structure of these extended models is hard to justify and the models are often difficult to calibrate, relying on customised optimisation schemes. Based on the paradigm of representation learning, we extend the LCmodel to multiple populations using neural networks, which automatically select an optimal model structure. We fit this model to mortality rates since 1950 for all countries in the Human Mortality Database and observe that the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model is highly competitive.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
97
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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