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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Asymptotic Post-Selection Inference for Akaike's Information Criterion

Authors: Ali Charkhi; Gerda Claeskens;

Asymptotic Post-Selection Inference for Akaike's Information Criterion

Abstract

Ignoring the model selection step in inference after selection is harmful. This paper studies the asymptotic distribution of estimators after model selection using the Akaike information criterion. First, we consider the classical setting in which a true model exists and is included in the candidate set of models. We exploit the overselection property of this criterion in the construction of a selection region, and obtain the asymptotic distribution of estimators and linear combinations thereof conditional on the selected model. The limiting distribution depends on the set of competitive models and on the smallest overparameterized model. Second, we relax the assumption about the existence of a true model, and obtain uniform asymptotic results. We use simulation to study the resulting postselection distributions and to calculate confidence regions for the model parameters. We apply the method to data.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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