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BI Open
Research . 2014
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SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models

Authors: Knut Are Aastveit; Claudia Foroni; Francesco Ravazzolo;

Density Forecasts with MIDAS Models

Abstract

In this paper we propose a parametric block wild bootstrap approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. First, Monte Carlo simulations show that predictive densities for the various MIDAS models derived from the block wild bootstrap approach are more accurate, in terms of coverage rates, than predictive densities derived from either a residual-based bootstrap approach or by drawing errors from a normal distribution. This result holds irrespective of the data generating errors being normally independently distributed, serially correlated, heteroskedastic or a mixture of normal distributions. Second, in an empirical exercise we evaluate density forecasts for quarterly U.S. real output growth, exploiting information from typical monthly and weekly series. We show that the block wild bootstrapping approach, applied to the various MIDAS regressions, produces predictive densities for U.S. real output growth that are well-calibrated. Moreover, the relative accuracy, measured in terms of the logarithmic score or the continuous ranked probability score, improves for the various MIDAS specifications as more information becomes available.

Country
Norway
Keywords

Mixed Data Sampling, Density Forecasts, Nowcasting, VDP::Samfunnsvitenskap: 200::Økonomi: 210::Samfunnsøkonomi: 212, ddc:330, E37, nowcasting, VDP::Social science: 200, mixed data sampling, JEL: C11, JEL: C53, C53, JEL: E37, density forecasts, C11, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C10, jel: jel:E37

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze