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An Economic Evaluation of the Model Risk for Risk Models

Authors: Bertrand B. Maillet; Christophe Boucher; Patrick Kouontchou;

An Economic Evaluation of the Model Risk for Risk Models

Abstract

The recent experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious doubts about the accuracy of standard risk measures as a tool to quantify extreme downward risks. Standard risk measures are subject to a “model risk” due to the specification and estimation uncertainty. We propose a general adjustment of the Value-at-Risk to compute risk measures robust to the model risk. The proposed procedure aims empirically adjusting the imperfect quantile estimate assessing the good quality of VaR models such as frequency exceptions, independence of violations and magnitude of violations. Based on a long sample of U.S. data, we find an inverse U-shape relation between VaR model errors and the horizon: corrections (for model errors) are higher for short-term horizons but are also increasing for long-term horizons. We also provide a fair comparison between the main risk models using the same metric that corresponds to model risk required corrections.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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