The Accuracy of Pre-Election Polling of German General Elections
Copyright policy )The Accuracy of Pre-Election Polling of German General Elections
Pre-election polls are the most prominent type of surveys. As with any other survey, estimates are only of interest if they do not deviate significantly from the true state of nature. Even though pre-election polls in Germany as well as in other countries repeatedly show noticeably inaccurate results, their failure appears to be quickly forgotten. No comparison considering all available German data on actual election results and the confidence intervals based on pre-election polls has been published. In the study reported here only 69% of confidence intervals covered the election result, whereas statistically 95% would have to be expected. German pre-election polls even just a month ahead are therefore much less accurate than most introductory statistical textbooks would suggest.
methods, data, analyses, Vol 8, No 1 (2014)
- City St George’s, University of London United Kingdom
- University of Duisburg-Essen Germany
Wahlforschung, sampling error, election to the Bundestag, JC, Prognose, Social Sciences, Umfrageforschung, Federal Republic of Germany, Pre-Election-Polls, Sonntagsfrage, H, Wahlverhalten, survey research, Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften, Design effects, Bundestagswahl, estimation, voting behavior, Empirical coverage, Statistics, Bundesrepublik Deutschland, HA1-4737, Pre-Election-Polls; empirical coverage; confidence intervals for binomial data; design effects; Sonntagsfrage, election research, Stichprobenfehler, öffentliche Meinung, public opinion, prognosis, Confidence intervals for binomial data, Schätzung
Wahlforschung, sampling error, election to the Bundestag, JC, Prognose, Social Sciences, Umfrageforschung, Federal Republic of Germany, Pre-Election-Polls, Sonntagsfrage, H, Wahlverhalten, survey research, Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften, Design effects, Bundestagswahl, estimation, voting behavior, Empirical coverage, Statistics, Bundesrepublik Deutschland, HA1-4737, Pre-Election-Polls; empirical coverage; confidence intervals for binomial data; design effects; Sonntagsfrage, election research, Stichprobenfehler, öffentliche Meinung, public opinion, prognosis, Confidence intervals for binomial data, Schätzung
selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources.This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).1 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
Citations provided by BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!