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Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Epidemics Using Polynomial Chaos

Uncertainty quantification in simulations of epidemics using polynomial chaos
Authors: Francisco-José Santonja; Benito M. Chen-Charpentier;

Uncertainty Quantification in Simulations of Epidemics Using Polynomial Chaos

Abstract

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations are a useful tool to study the processes involved in epidemiology. Many models consider that the parameters are deterministic variables. But in practice, the transmission parameters present large variability and it is not possible to determine them exactly, and it is necessary to introduce randomness. In this paper, we present an application of the polynomial chaos approach to epidemiological mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations with random coefficients. Taking into account the variability of the transmission parameters of the model, this approach allows us to obtain an auxiliary system of differential equations, which is then integrated numerically to obtain the first-and the second-order moments of the output stochastic processes. A sensitivity analysis based on the polynomial chaos approach is also performed to determine which parameters have the greatest influence on the results. As an example, we will apply the approach to an obesity epidemic model.

Keywords

Adult, Stochastic Processes, Models, Statistical, Epidemiology, Uncertainty, obesity epidemic model, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, polynomial chaos, Complex behavior and chaotic systems of ordinary differential equations, Nonlinear Dynamics, Prevalence, Humans, epidemiology, Obesity, Epidemics, transmission parameters, Algorithms, Research Article, Aged

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold
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