
arXiv: 1610.06501
This article considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for, e.g., modeling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms have resulted in poor performance and the main contribution of the article is the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions. The dynamics of the jump processes cause the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equations to have an intricate state-dependence, which makes the design of efficient algorithms difficult. We provide theoretical results that quantify the performance of importance sampling algorithms in general and construct asymptotically optimal algorithms for some examples. The computational gain compared to standard Monte Carlo is illustrated by numerical examples.
credit risk, Probability (math.PR), Markovian intensity models, large deviations, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), importance sampling, Computational methods in Markov chains, Sampling theory, sample surveys, FOS: Mathematics, Primary 65C05, 60J75, secondary 91G40, 91G60, Jump processes on general state spaces, Monte Carlo, Mathematics - Probability
credit risk, Probability (math.PR), Markovian intensity models, large deviations, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), importance sampling, Computational methods in Markov chains, Sampling theory, sample surveys, FOS: Mathematics, Primary 65C05, 60J75, secondary 91G40, 91G60, Jump processes on general state spaces, Monte Carlo, Mathematics - Probability
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