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Article . 2022
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2016
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Article . 2022
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Importance Sampling for a Simple Markovian Intensity Model Using Subsolutions

Importance sampling for a simple Markovian intensity model using subsolutions
Authors: Boualem Djehiche; Henrik Hult; Pierre Nyquist;

Importance Sampling for a Simple Markovian Intensity Model Using Subsolutions

Abstract

This article considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for, e.g., modeling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms have resulted in poor performance and the main contribution of the article is the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions. The dynamics of the jump processes cause the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi equations to have an intricate state-dependence, which makes the design of efficient algorithms difficult. We provide theoretical results that quantify the performance of importance sampling algorithms in general and construct asymptotically optimal algorithms for some examples. The computational gain compared to standard Monte Carlo is illustrated by numerical examples.

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Keywords

credit risk, Probability (math.PR), Markovian intensity models, large deviations, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), importance sampling, Computational methods in Markov chains, Sampling theory, sample surveys, FOS: Mathematics, Primary 65C05, 60J75, secondary 91G40, 91G60, Jump processes on general state spaces, Monte Carlo, Mathematics - Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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bronze
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