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Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology)
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Estimation of the Marginal Expected Shortfall: the Mean When a Related Variable is Extreme

The Mean when a Related Variable is Extreme
Authors: Cai, J.; Einmahl, J.H.J.; Haan, L.F.M. de; Zhou, C.;

Estimation of the Marginal Expected Shortfall: the Mean When a Related Variable is Extreme

Abstract

SummaryDenote the loss return on the equity of a financial institution as X and that of the entire market as Y. For a given very small value of p > 0, the marginal expected shortfall (MES) is defined as E{X|Y>QY(1−p)}, where Q Y(1 − p) is the (1 − p)th quantile of the distribution of Y. The MES is an important factor when measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions. For a wide non-parametric class of bivariate distributions, we construct an estimator of the MES and establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator when p ↓ 0, as the sample size n → ∞. Since we are in particular interested in the case p = O(1/n), we use extreme value techniques for deriving the estimator and its asymptotic behaviour. The finite sample performance of the estimator and the relevance of the limit theorem are shown in a detailed simulation study. We also apply our method to estimate the MES of three large US investment banks.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Asymptotic normality;extreme values;tail dependence, tail dependence, asymptotic normality, Asymptotic normality; extreme values; tail dependence, extreme values, RSM F&A, conditional tail expectation, Asymptotic normality, EUR ESE 31, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:C14

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    selected citations
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    91
    popularity
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    Top 1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
91
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid