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Drift in Transaction‐Level Asset Price Models

Drift in transaction-level asset price models
Authors: Wen Cao; Clifford Hurvich; Philippe Soulier;

Drift in Transaction‐Level Asset Price Models

Abstract

We study the effect of drift in pure‐jump transaction‐level models for asset prices in continuous time, driven by point processes. The drift is assumed to arise from a non‐zero mean in the efficient shock series. It follows that the drift is proportional to the driving point process itself, that is, the cumulative number of transactions. This link reveals a mechanism by which properties of intertrade durations (such as heavy tails and long memory) can have a strong impact on properties of average returns, thereby potentially making it extremely difficult to determine long‐term growth rates or to reliably detect an equity premium. We focus on a basic univariate model for log price, coupled with general assumptions on the point process that are satisfied by several existing flexible models, allowing for both long memory and heavy tails in durations. Under our pure‐jump model, we obtain the limiting distribution for the suitably normalized log price. This limiting distribution need not be Gaussian and may have either finite variance or infinite variance. We show that the drift can affect not only the limiting distribution for the normalized log price but also the rate in the corresponding normalization. Therefore, the drift (or equivalently, the properties of durations) affects the rate of convergence of estimators of the growth rate and can invalidate standard hypothesis tests for that growth rate. As a remedy to these problems, we propose a new ratio statistic that behaves more robustly and employ subsampling methods to carry out inference for the growth rate. Our analysis also sheds some new light on two long‐standing debates as to whether stock returns have long memory or infinite variance.

Country
France
Keywords

Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, Transaction-level asset prices modeling. Point processes. Heavy tails. Long memory.,Transaction-level asset prices modeling. Point processes. Heavy tails. Long memory, growth rates, long memory, subsampling, Central limit and other weak theorems, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), durations, Asset pricing models, heavy tails, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), FOS: Mathematics, Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes), [MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
bronze