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Wavelet Polynomial Autoregression for Monthly Bigeye Tuna Catches Forecasting

Authors: Nibaldo Rodríguez;

Wavelet Polynomial Autoregression for Monthly Bigeye Tuna Catches Forecasting

Abstract

In this paper, multiscale wavelet analysis combined with a multivariate polynomial is presented to improve the accuracy and parsimony of 1-month ahead forecasting of monthly bigeye tuna catches in equatorial Indian Ocean. The proposed forecasting model is based on the decomposition the raw data set into trend and residuals components by using stationary wavelet transform. In wavelet domain, the trend component and residuals components are predicted with a linear autoregressive model and a multi-scale polynomial autoregressive model; respectively. We find that the proposed forecasting method achieves $99\%$ of the explained variance with reduced parsimony and high accuracy.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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