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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: Royal Society Data Sharing and Accessibility
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2023
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The e-posterior

Authors: Peter D. Grünwald;

The e-posterior

Abstract

We develop a representation of a decision maker’s uncertainty based on e-variables. Like the Bayesian posterior, thise-posteriorallows for making predictions against arbitrary loss functions that may not be specified ex ante. Unlike the Bayesian posterior, it provides risk bounds that have frequentist validity irrespective of prior adequacy: if the e-collection (which plays a role analogous to the Bayesian prior) is chosen badly, the bounds get loose rather than wrong, makinge-posterior minimaxdecision rules safer than Bayesian ones. The resulting quasi-conditional paradigm is illustrated by re-interpreting a previous influential partial Bayes-frequentist unification,Kiefer–Berger–Brown–Wolpert conditional frequentist tests, in terms of e-posteriors.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects’.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Mathematics, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Statistics - Methodology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green