
The paper is concerned with refining two well-known approximations to the Reed–Frost epidemic process. The first is the branching process approximation in the early stages of the epidemic; we extend its range of validity, and sharpen the estimates of the error incurred. The second is the normal approximation to the distribution of the final size of a large epidemic, which we complement with a detailed local limit approximation. The latter, in particular, is relevant if the approximations are to be used for statistical inference.
Statistics and Probability, Total variation, Epidemiology, Final size distribution, Applied Mathematics, Reed-Frost epidemic process, Central limit and other weak theorems, Reed–Frost epidemic process, Local limit approximation, 10123 Institute of Mathematics, Branching process approximation, 510 Mathematics, 2604 Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Applications of branching processes, 2613 Statistics and Probability, Asymptotic relative closeness, 2611 Modeling and Simulation
Statistics and Probability, Total variation, Epidemiology, Final size distribution, Applied Mathematics, Reed-Frost epidemic process, Central limit and other weak theorems, Reed–Frost epidemic process, Local limit approximation, 10123 Institute of Mathematics, Branching process approximation, 510 Mathematics, 2604 Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Applications of branching processes, 2613 Statistics and Probability, Asymptotic relative closeness, 2611 Modeling and Simulation
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 28 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
