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Algorithmic identification of probabilities is hard

Authors: Bienvenu, Laurent; Figueira, Santiago; Monin, Benoit; Shen, Alexander;

Algorithmic identification of probabilities is hard

Abstract

Suppose that we are given an infinite binary sequence which is random for a Bernoulli measure of parameter $p$. By the law of large numbers, the frequency of zeros in the sequence tends to~$p$, and thus we can get better and better approximations of $p$ as we read the sequence. We study in this paper a similar question, but from the viewpoint of inductive inference. We suppose now that $p$ is a computable real, but one asks for more: as we are reading more and more bits of our random sequence, we have to eventually guess the exact parameter $p$ (in the form of a Turing code). Can one do such a thing uniformly on all sequences that are random for computable Bernoulli measures, or even on a `large enough' fraction of them? In this paper, we give a negative answer to this question. In fact, we prove a very general negative result which extends far beyond the class of Bernoulli measures.

Countries
France, Argentina
Keywords

Algorithmic learning theory, [MATH.MATH-PR] Mathematics [math]/Probability [math.PR], Computational learning theory, Mathematics - Logic, Algorithmic randomness, algorithmic learning theory, Algorithmic information theory (Kolmogorov complexity, etc.), ALGORITHMIC LEARNING THEORY, algorithmic randomness, ALGORITHMIC RANDOMNESS, FOS: Mathematics, [MATH.MATH-LO] Mathematics [math]/Logic [math.LO], https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.2, [INFO.INFO-IT] Computer Science [cs]/Information Theory [cs.IT], 03D32, 68Q30, 68Q32, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, Logic (math.LO)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze