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HAL - Université de Lille
Article . 2020
License: CC BY NC
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Article . 2020
License: CC BY NC
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Decision Support Systems
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Article . 2025
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Leveraging fine-grained transaction data for customer life event predictions

Authors: Arno De Caigny; Kristof Coussement; Koen W. De Bock;

Leveraging fine-grained transaction data for customer life event predictions

Abstract

Abstract This real-world study with a large European financial services provider combines aggregated customer data including customer demographics, behavior and contact with the firm, with fine-grained transaction data to predict four different customer life events: moving, birth of a child, new relationship, and end of a relationship. The fine-grained transaction data—approximately 60 million debit transactions involving around 132,000 customers to >1.5 million different counterparties over a one-year period—reveal a pseudo-social network that supports the derivation of behavioral similarity measures. To advance decision support systems literature, this study validates the proposed customer life event prediction model in a real-world setting in the financial services industry; compares models that rely on aggregated data, fine-grained transaction data, and their combination; and extends existing methods to incorporate fine-grained data that preserve recency, frequency, and monetary value information of the transactions. The results show that the proposed model predicts life events significantly better than random guessing, especially with the combination of fine-grained transaction and aggregated data. Incorporating recency, frequency, and monetary value information of fine-grained transaction data also significantly improves performance compared with models based on binary logs. Fine-grained transaction data accounts for the largest part of the total variable importance, for all but one of the life events.

Country
France
Keywords

330, Pseudo-social networks, Predictive modeling, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, 004, Data science, Big data, Life event prediction, [SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, [SHS] Humanities and Social Sciences, Customer relationship management (CRM), [SHS.GESTION] Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
26
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze