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Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Article . 2006 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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Article . 2006
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Article . 2020
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Testing the martingale difference hypothesis using integrated regression functions

Authors: Juan-Carlos Escanciano; Carlos Velasco;

Testing the martingale difference hypothesis using integrated regression functions

Abstract

An omnibus test for testing a generalized version of the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) is proposed. This generalized hypothesis includes the usual MDH, testing for conditional moments constancy such as conditional homoscedasticity (ARCH effects) or testing for directional predictability. A unified approach for dealing with all of these testing problems is proposed. These hypotheses are long standing problems in econometric time series analysis, and typically have been tested using the sample autocorrelations or in the spectral domain using the periodogram. Since these hypotheses cover also nonlinear predictability, tests based on those second order statistics are inconsistent against uncorrelated processes in the alternative hypothesis. In order to circumvent this problem pairwise integrated regression functions are introduced as measures of linear and nonlinear dependence. The proposed test does not require to chose a lag order depending on sample size, to smooth the data or to formulate a parametric alternative model. Moreover, the test is robust to higher order dependence, in particular to conditional heteroskedasticity. Under general dependence the asymptotic null distribution depends on the data generating process, so a bootstrap procedure is considered and a Monte Carlo study examines its finite sample performance. Then, the martingale and conditional heteroskedasticity properties of the Pound/Dollar exchange rate are investigated. Publicado

Country
Spain
Keywords

Nonlinear time series, empirical processes, Non-Markovian processes: hypothesis testing, nonlinear time series, Asymptotic distribution theory in statistics, Exchange rates, :Economía y Empresa [Materias Investigacion], Martingale difference hypothesis, Materias Investigacion::Economía y Empresa, Monte Carlo methods, exchange rates, Economía, martingale difference hypothesis, Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH), Empirical processes, Applications of statistics to economics, jel: jel:C12

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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