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Acta Psychologica
Article . 2008 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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https://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh...
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Forecasting exponential growth and exponential decline: Similarities and differences

Authors: Ebersbach, M; Lehner, M; Resing, W C M; Wilkening, F;

Forecasting exponential growth and exponential decline: Similarities and differences

Abstract

Previous research has demonstrated adults' difficulties with explicitly forecasting exponential processes. Exponential growth is usually grossly underestimated, whereas exponential decline is forecast more accurately. By contrast, the present study examined implicit knowledge about exponential processes and how it is affected by function type (growth versus decline) in samples of 7-, 10-, 14-year-olds, and adults (N=80). Different indicators of the quality of forecasts were investigated. As opposed to previous findings, participants of all age groups estimated exponential decline less adequately than exponential growth. This effect could be attributed mainly to the fact that, in relation to fitted exponential functions, the starting value, or intercept, of the function was approximated well for exponential growth but badly with regard to exponential decline. The accuracy of the non-linear component in forecast functions barely differed between function types within the same age group. Furthermore, even 7-year-olds appeared to have a preliminary understanding of exponential processes, while both intercepts and exponents of forecasts became more accurate with age. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

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Keywords

Adult, Male, 3204 Developmental and Educational Psychology, Time Factors, Adolescent, 10093 Institute of Psychology, 3205 Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Concept Formation, Age Factors, Judgment, 1201 Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous), Task Performance and Analysis, Linear Models, Humans, Female, 150 Psychology, Child, Intuition, Mathematics, Forecasting

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
37
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold