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Statistics in Medicine
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Statistics in Medicine
Article
License: CC BY
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Other literature type . 2017
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Article . 2017
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Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis

Authors: David M. Hughes; Arnošt Komárek; Laura J. Bonnett; Gabriela Czanner; Marta García‐Fiñana;
APC: 2,733.99 EUR

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis

Abstract

Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group. These estimates are derived from a multivariate generalised linear mixed model of the biomarker's longitudinal evolution in each of the groups and can be updated each time new data is available for a patient, providing a dynamic (over time) allocation scheme. However, the precision of the estimated group probabilities differs for each patient and also over time. This precision can be assessed by looking at credible intervals for the group membership probabilities. In this paper, we propose a new allocation rule that incorporates credible intervals for use in context of a dynamic longitudinal discriminant analysis and show that this can decrease the number of false positives in a prognostic test, improving the positive predictive value. We also establish that by leaving some patients unclassified for a certain period, the classification accuracy of those patients who are classified can be improved, giving increased confidence to clinicians in their decision making. Finally, we show that determining a stopping rule dynamically can be more accurate than specifying a set time point at which to decide on a patient's status. We illustrate our methodology using data from patients with epilepsy and show how patients who fail to achieve adequate seizure control are more accurately identified using credible intervals compared to existing methods.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Epilepsy, Decision Making, Remission Induction, Discriminant Analysis, Bayes Theorem, Classification, Prognosis, Sensitivity and Specificity, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, longitudinal discriminant analysis, credible intervals, Multivariate Analysis, Linear Models, Humans, Computer Simulation, Longitudinal Studies, QA, allocation scheme, Research Articles, Probability

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid