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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Environmetricsarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
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Article . 2012 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Estimating return levels from serially dependent extremes

Authors: Fawcett L; Walshaw D;

Estimating return levels from serially dependent extremes

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship betweenreturn levelsof a process and the strength of serial correlation present in the extremes of that process. Estimates of long period return levels are often used as design requirements, andpeaks over thresholdsanalyses have, in the past, been used to obtain such estimates. However, analyses based on such declustering schemes are extremely wasteful of data, often resulting in great estimation uncertainty represented by very wide confidence intervals. Using simulated data, we show that—provided theextremal indexis estimated appropriately—usingallthreshold excesses can give more accurate and precise estimates of return levels, allowing us to avoid altogether the sometimes arbitrary process of cluster identification. We then apply our method to two data examples concerning sea‐surge and wind‐speed extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
49
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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