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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Ecologyarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Ecology
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
Data sources: Crossref
Ecology
Article . 2019
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Black swans in space: modeling spatiotemporal processes with extremes

Authors: Sean C, Anderson; Eric J, Ward;

Black swans in space: modeling spatiotemporal processes with extremes

Abstract

AbstractIn ecological systems, extremes can happen in time, such as population crashes, or in space, such as rapid range contractions. However, current methods for joint inference about temporal and spatial dynamics (e.g., spatiotemporal modeling with Gaussian random fields) may perform poorly when underlying processes include extreme events. Here we introduce a model that allows for extremes to occur simultaneously in time and space. Our model is a Bayesian predictive‐process GLMM (generalized linear mixed‐effects model) that uses a multivariate‐t distribution to describe spatial random effects. The approach is easily implemented with our flexible R package glmmfields. First, using simulated data, we demonstrate the ability to recapture spatiotemporal extremes, and explore the consequences of fitting models that ignore such extremes. Second, we predict tree mortality from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the U.S. Pacific Northwest over the last 16 yr. We show that our approach provides more accurate and precise predictions compared to traditional spatiotemporal models when extremes are present. Our R package makes these models accessible to a wide range of ecologists and scientists in other disciplines interested in fitting spatiotemporal GLMMs, with and without extremes.

Keywords

Coleoptera, Northwestern United States, Anseriformes, Animals, Bayes Theorem, Pinus

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
38
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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