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Demand Forecasting in Smart Grids

Authors: Piotr Mirowski; Sining Chen; Tin Kam Ho; Chun-Nam Yu;

Demand Forecasting in Smart Grids

Abstract

Data analytics in smart grids can be leveraged to channel the data downpour from individual meters into knowledge valuable to electric power utilities and end-consumers. Short-term load forecasting (STLF) can address issues vital to a utility but it has traditionally been done mostly at system (city or country) level. In this case study, we exploit rich, multi-year, and high-frequency annotated data collected via a metering infrastructure to perform STLF on aggregates of power meters in a mid-sized city. For smart meter aggregates complemented with geo-specific weather data, we benchmark several state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms, including kernel methods for nonlinear regression, seasonal and temperature-adjusted auto-regressive models, exponential smoothing and state-space models. We show how STLF accuracy improves at larger meter aggregation (at feeder, substation, and system-wide level). We provide an overview of our algorithms for load prediction and discuss system performance issues that impact real time STLF. ® 2014 Alcatel-Lucent.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
85
Top 10%
Top 1%
Top 10%
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