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Trivariate Stochastic Weather Model for Predicting Maize Yield

نموذج الطقس العشوائي ثلاثي المتغيرات للتنبؤ بمحصول الذرة
Authors: Patrick Chidzalo; Phillip O. Ngare; Joseph Mungatu;

Trivariate Stochastic Weather Model for Predicting Maize Yield

Abstract

Maize yield prediction in the sub-Saharan region is imperative for mitigation of risks emanating from crop loss due to changes in climate. Temperature, rainfall amount, and reference evapotranspiration are major climatic factors affecting maize yield. They are not only interdependent but also have significantly changed due to climate change, which causes nonlinearity and nonstationarity in weather data. Hence, there exists a need for a stochastic process for predicting maize yield with higher precision. To solve the problem, this paper constructs a joint stochastic process that acquires joints effects of the three weather processes from joint a probability density function (pdf) constructed using copulas that maintain interdependence. Stochastic analyses are applied on the pdf and process to account for nonlinearity and nonstationarity, and also establish a corresponding stochastic differential equation (SDE) for maize yield. The trivariate stochastic process predicts maize yield with R 2 = 0.8389 and M A P E = 4.31 % under a deep learning framework. Its aggregated values predict maize yield with R 2 up to 0.9765 and M A P E = 1.94 % under common machine learning algorithms. Comparatively, the R 2 is 0.8829% and M A P E = 4.18 % , under the maize yield SDE. Thus, the joint stochastic process can be used to predict maize yield with higher precision.

Keywords

Interdependence, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Estimation in multivariate analysis, FOS: Political science, FOS: Law, Plant Science, Yield (engineering), Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Gaussian Processes in Machine Learning, FOS: Economics and business, Artificial Intelligence, QA1-939, FOS: Mathematics, Climate change, Econometrics, Biology, Political science, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Measures of association (correlation, canonical correlation, etc.), Evapotranspiration, Ecology, Physics, Statistics, Life Sciences, Dynamic Modeling of Plant Form and Growth, FOS: Biological sciences, Computer Science, Physical Sciences, Maize Yield, Thermodynamics, Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics, Law, Mathematics, Forecasting

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold