Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model
Copyright policy )Growth impact of climate change and response policies: The advanced climate change long-term (ACCL) model
Abstract This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries / regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country / regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. Compared to other models, it provides a comprehensive modelisation of TFP, which is the most significant determinant of the GDP projected path. We present simulation results of different energy policy scenarios. They illustrate both the “tragedy of the horizon” and the “tragedy of the commons”, which call for a policy framework that adequately integrates a long run perspective, through a low-enough discount rate and an effective intergenerational solidarity as well as international cooperation.
- UNIVERSITE D'AIX MARSEILLE France
- Centrale Marseille France
- Aix-Marseille University France
- French National Centre for Scientific Research France
- Banque de France France
JEL: O - Economic Development, 330, Climate, Growth, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q48 - Government Policy, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, JEL: H - Public Economics/H.H2 - Taxation, Long-term projections, ACL-4 / HCERES C, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E23 - Production, Innovation, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Productivity, Subsidies, Saving, Global warming, Production, Labor Markets, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Technological Change, Environmental policy, and Growth/O.O5 - Economywide Country Studies/O.O5.O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, and Revenue/H.H2.H23 - Externalities • Redistributive Effects • Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Investment, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Energy prices
JEL: O - Economic Development, 330, Climate, Growth, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q48 - Government Policy, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, JEL: H - Public Economics/H.H2 - Taxation, Long-term projections, ACL-4 / HCERES C, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E23 - Production, Innovation, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Productivity, Subsidies, Saving, Global warming, Production, Labor Markets, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Technological Change, Environmental policy, and Growth/O.O5 - Economywide Country Studies/O.O5.O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy, and Revenue/H.H2.H23 - Externalities • Redistributive Effects • Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Investment, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Energy prices
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