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Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

Authors: King, Jonathan; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Allen, Kathryn; Vance, Tessa; Hessl, Amy;

Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

Abstract

Abstract The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM’s importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends. Here, we use data assimilation to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between proxy records and the SAM over an instrumental calibration period, so our reconstruction is less sensitive to the teleconnection variability that has hindered previous reconstructions. Our approach also allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We also find the modern positive trend is outside the range of the prior 2000 years, but only on multidecadal time scales.

Keywords

Optimal Sensor, Paleoclimate, Science, Q, Common Era, Southern Annular Mode, Drought Atlas, Data Assimilation, Article

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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