Reversing the declining land carbon sink drives the European decision to increase net carbon uptake in the forest. This decision, however, has been made without considering the consequences for the circular bioeconomy. One principal reason is that LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) accounting fails to balance LULUCF emissions/removals with the forest-based substitution effects recorded in the energy sector. Moreover, the focus on carbon sequestration in standing forests is oddly disconnected from the fact that, over the past century, several EU Member states have managed to harvest ever larger amounts of forest, while simultaneously increasing both forest carbon stocks and the annual forest increment. This fact suggests we should more closely scrutinize the net annual contributions to the global carbon budget provided by the circular bioeconomy (avoided emissions, the net flux in forest-based carbon emissions/removals, or “net removals,” and renewed forest growth). Reducing forest use intensity (i.e., annual harvest) may directly conflict with the pathway to increasing LULUCF-based climate change mitigation potential. Moreover, the mix of micro-level incentives created by the EU LULUCF policy framework may be incompatible with those public and private sector interests and investment goals that would otherwise underpin future forest growth potential. As evidenced by recent experience, the emphasis on reforestation and forest protection has provided marginal contributions to the European carbon budget, failing to encourage the kind of forest investment momentum required. Far greater contributions to the European carbon budget derive from Managed Forest Lands (MFL) but remain under-mobilized and even heavily restricted in the EU LULUCF policy framework. A more strategic approach is required to strike a meaningful balance between the need for protected, biodiverse-rich forest environments, on the one hand, and societal interests in the mitigation, human livelihood and consumption benefits forests and forest-based resources can provide.

(Preprint version of a submitted article. Currently under review.)