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Conference object . 2022
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A method for long-term corrected probabilistic Vref estimation

Authors: Winterfeldt, Jörg; Vignesh T Subrahmaniam;

A method for long-term corrected probabilistic Vref estimation

Abstract

Accurate estimation of the 50-year return extreme wind speed (Vref) based on sufficiently long duration wind data is important for accurate characterization of wind turbine storm loads. Often times though there is only a limited amount of site measurement data available, typically in the order of one year of data, leading to unsatisfactory levels of accuracy in the estimated Vref. GE developed a new method to overcome this problem by combining on-site wind speed measurements in combination with more long-term regional wind data in a Bayesian framework. Two inputs are used for the new Bayesian Vref estimation method: 1.A Vref distribution using wind velocity measurements from the actual site. 2.Prior belief: Vref distribution derived from longer duration data for a nearby site which is climatologically similar to the one under investigation. This dataset will serve as long-term correction. The Bayesian algorithm combines both inputs and computes the posterior Vref distribution at the site, a long-term corrected probabilistic determination of Vref. Results show that the method reduces the uncertainties in Vref estimation which in turn reduces uncertainty in the wind turbine site suitability assessment.

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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