Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 15 Oct 2021 France English Publisher:eLife Sciences Publications, LtdJournal:eLife, volume 10 (eissn: 2050-084X,

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Authors: Thomine, Olivier; Alizon, Samuel; Boennec, Corentin; Barthelemy, Marc; Sofonea, Mircea;

doi: 10.7554/elife.71417 , 10.5281/zenodo.4682841 , 10.5281/zenodo.4675730 , 10.5281/zenodo.4680003 , 10.5281/zenodo.4675731 , 10.5281/zenodo.5542171

pmid: 34652271

pmc: PMC8568339

Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics

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Abstract

Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimise public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computationally efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time.

Country

France

Related Organizations

University of Montpellier
France
Université de Montpellier
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McGill University
Canada
ROYAL INSTITUTION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF LEARNING MCGILL UNIVERSITY
Canada
Aix-Marseille University
France

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Keywords

QH301-705.5, Science, multiagent covid-19 epidemics simulation geographic, Communicable Diseases, [SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, [SDV.BID.EVO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE], [SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [SDV.EE.SANT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Health, Humans, Biology (General), Epidemics, [SDV.MP.VIR] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology, Spatial Analysis, [SDV.BIBS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM], Geography, high perfomance computing, parallel computing, Q, R, COVID-19, [SDV.EE.IEO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SDV.GEN.GPO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE], Medicine, [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, France, Public Health, Computational and Systems Biology

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