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Looking for the bioclimatic envelopes of SARS CoV-2: if any, here be dragons

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Preprint , Article 10 Sep 2020 English Publisher:Zenodo

Authors: Gutiérrez-Hernández, Oliver; García, Luis V.;

doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4755678 , 10.5281/zenodo.4755679

handle: 10261/285135

Looking for the bioclimatic envelopes of SARS CoV-2: if any, here be dragons

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Abstract

On old maps, the expression ‘Here be dragons’ (from the Latin, Hic sunt dracones) indicated that which lay beyond the world as it was known, and they often showed fantastical creatures (e.g., dragons) that served as indicators of the limits of our knowledge. As such, this means that unexplored territories are potentially dangerous. In this paper, we address the uncertainties about the spread of the COVID-19 disease and the limitations of bioclimatic envelopes in the geographical distribution of SARS CoV-2. We discuss some key points paramount to understanding the research problem posed to the geographical distribution and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Namely, SARS CoV-2 vs. COVID-19, weather vs. climate, and models vs. anthroposphere. Concerning the influence of atmospheric conditions (and other candidate drivers) on the disease distribution, we hypothesise that extrapolations in space-time do not add explanatory power to future scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since atmospheric conditions may only explain a very limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS CoV-2, until we find the bioclimatic envelopes of SARS CoV-2, if any, here be dragons.

Peer reviewed

14 páginas

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Keywords

COVID-19; weather; climate; correlative models; anthroposphere.

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