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Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and a Multilayer Perceptron Model Trained with Grey Wolf Optimizer for Predicting Solar Diffuse Fraction

Authors: Randall Claywell; László Nádai; Imre Felde; Sina Ardabili; Amirhosein Mosavi;

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and a Multilayer Perceptron Model Trained with Grey Wolf Optimizer for Predicting Solar Diffuse Fraction

Abstract

The accurate prediction of the solar Diffuse Fraction (DF), sometimes called the Diffuse Ratio, is an important topic for solar energy research. In the present study, the current state of Diffuse Irradiance research is discussed and then three robust, Machine Learning (ML) models, are examined using a large dataset (almost 8 years) of hourly readings from Almeria, Spain. The ML models used herein, are a hybrid Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a single Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a hybrid Multi-Layer Perceptron-Grey Wolf Optimizer (MLP-GWO). These models were evaluated for their predictive precision, using various Solar and Diffuse Fraction (DF) irradiance data, from Spain. The results were then evaluated using two frequently used evaluation criteria, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the MLP-GWO model, followed by the ANFIS model, provided a higher performance, in both the training and the testing procedures.

Keywords

Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Bioinformatics, solar radiation, Science, QC1-999, solar energy, multilayer perceptron (MLP), Astrophysics, diffuse fraction, Article, Machine Learning (cs.LG), Engineering, big data, adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, information_technology_data_management, Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing, machine learning; prediction; adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system; adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system; diffuse fraction; multilayer perceptron, Physics, Q, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, Life Sciences, solar irradiance, prediction, 68T01, renewable energy, QB460-466, photovoltaics, machine learning, data science

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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