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Research . 2020
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Research . 2020
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Other literature type . 2020
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A Probabilistic Modelling Approach for Residential Load Profiles

Authors: Ziegler, Felix; Seim, Stephan; Verwiebe, Paul; Müller-Kirchenbauer, Joachim;

A Probabilistic Modelling Approach for Residential Load Profiles

Abstract

In this paper, a model is presented that generates electricity load profiles for individual German households. It is assumed that the electricity consumption is mainly determined by the behavior of the residents and their appliances. Activity patterns for the residents living in the household are simulated by using a first-order Markov-chain, which has been calibrated by time use data from a German survey obtained in 2012/2013. The model is then validated by using the original sample to check whether daily routines are realistically reflected in the model. Furthermore, the electricity load profiles are validated by comparing the outcome of the model with real measured load profiles, synthetic load profiles but also statistical characteristics, which have been obtained through national surveys. Validation shows that the approach is suitable to simulate electricity demand that captures annual consumption, diurnal variation but also differences between individual households. The developed load profile generator can be used to analyze the impacts of the emersion and expansion of new technologies on residential load patterns and respective distribution network loads.

Keywords

Distribution network, Heat pumps, Electric vehicles, Load profile generator, Residential loads, Markov Chain, Time of Use Data

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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